US Election 2016

[kyle]

I remember trying to explain to you years ago that a country's debt isn't the same as personal debt.

I actually figured this was the exact thing you would say, I too remember that conversation, that was when I didn't know about something else, and that has started to shift for the US dollar, The US dollar is right now the worlds reserve currency, This makes it attractive, so the fed can get away with raising rates and printing more money with minimal impact on it's value. But if they do too much, and we cannot service our debts it's will start to crumble and be replaced, this will cause having this debt a bigger issue as we can't just continue to hand out bounds making it very difficult to service the debt, and inflation will go sky high. Also it could impact the US credit rating, meaning that certain investments cannot invest in US bounds any more. So it's either rise taxes, or cut spending. Raising taxes won't work, lets just say you do tax the top billionaires for 100% of their wealth, and somehow that does not have any other ramifications, Using Grok for Quick math(double check yourself the number), the Combined net worth of the top 50 most wealthy people in the US combines to a total of around 2.5 trillion, that won't even put a dent in the deficit, in fact Biden has spent around that number this year alone. Because billionaires have wealth tied up in stock, this would also crash the stock market with them selling all their shares to pay their 100% tax, we saw how Tesla compressed quite a bit, just when he sold to buy twitter, so now you are also starting to bankrupt the people who are hedging their money against inflation in the stock market. You are also changing the companies ownerships drastically.

Back to my point about the shift already happening away from the US dollar, I believe it was OPEC had some stipulation that all OIL must be traded in US dollars, however Since Biden took office, Russia, China, and the UAE have started trading it using their currencies. This is part of a shift from the US dollar being the worlds reserve. (I used Grok here again, I did not know the UAE was part of this change too)

Elon Musk: The World's Smartest Idiot (Youtube)

Well done take the most sinister look at Elon and exacerbate it. But it's great that emerald mind, nothing exists of it except for a screen shot of a news article. 50k for a business startup, if his dad would not have gave it to him, bankers could have. Where Tim gives him a suggestion that he takes, when you are working on many complex problems it's not always clear to see the question that needs answered. It likely would have occurred anyway, but Starship and booster are special, they are trying to prove out the minimum constraints, so in answering that question he agreed to add in another constraint. Tesla paying no taxes in the US, he admitted basically all global companies do this, not to cherry pick but, it also was a cherry-picked year he used, just so happened to be the first year that Tesla showed a profit. But this shows how broken our tax code is. Also those government loans Tesla took, They paid them all back with interest and before they were due. I forget what else it claimed, but the guy is a cynical, pessimistic idiot, he only care about taking the negatives and amplifying them, that guy tries to sound credible, by saying I really tried to find something good but could not several times.

One more point on this showing Elon actually knows his stuff disproving that idiot click bait guy, An Employee from xAI talks about how Elon helped the full team https://x.com/ibab/status/1860855442479698077 This was also followed up by someone on Tesla's AI team, and Musk confining https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1860859229986508847

I wasn't trying to trigger you, I was trying to get you to see things from a different viewpoint. I don't think it worked though.

Attacking my descendants like you know them, is not the best way to trigger looking at something in different view.

Regardless one must respect history, use it to learn, but keep in mind that the rules of the world and morals of the world were much different then, than they are today. As I said before I don't like that Russia did this land grab either, but endless killing of people needs to end. Are you one of those people who celebrated Paula Deen loosing her show on food network because of things she had said in her distant past?

Such as? Maybe he could build a wall...

Maybe, but more in the lines of facilitating negotiations for stopping the nonsense of killing people. That may end up making a DMZ area, just like in north and south Korea,

EDIT: Added in bit with X links to further prove the video is nonsense.

[sinewav]

The US dollar is right now the worlds reserve currency, This makes it attractive, so the fed can get away with raising rates and printing more money with minimal impact on it's value. But if they do too much, and we cannot service our debts it's will start to crumble and be replaced, this will cause having this debt a bigger issue as we can't just continue to hand out bounds making it very difficult to service the debt, and inflation will go sky high. Also it could impact the US credit rating, meaning that certain investments cannot invest in US bounds any more.

This is all speculation. No really, it's literally the same story people have been saying since I was a kid. The day of reckoning is always right around the corner! There is no credible evidence that any of this will happen. However, if you look at reserve currency as proxy for a large, stable empire (as they have been), then rejecting isolationist policies will further ensure the dollar continues to be the world's reserve currency. That means strengthening our sphere of influence (in Ukraine for example) over Russia or China. It's not the number of trillions you should focus on but the value of investing in the United States.

[Word]

But it's great that emerald mind, nothing exists of it except for a screen shot of a news article

https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/11/17/ ... rald-mine/
The broader point is that Musk is almost certainly not the self-made man he claims he is, but that applies even more to Trump. Trump doesn't even know Belgium is a country but he must be a genius, because he inherited wealth.

when you are working on many complex problems it's not always clear to see the question that needs answered

OK, but I'd say that a genius CEO of a rocket company not seeing the forest for the trees is kind of suspicious.

But this shows how broken our tax code is

Same for gun laws, why not let rich gun owners shoot everyone they dislike, it's completely ok when the law permits it.

An Employee from xAI talks about how Elon helped the full team https://x.com/ibab/status/1860855442479698077 This was also followed up by someone on Tesla's AI team, and Musk confining https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1860859229986508847

Qualifies as "anecdotal evidence" from people who work for the guy and need to keep their job, and probably didn't lose a limb yet due to workplace conditions he deliberately created. There's always a power hierarchy at work. Here's a guardian article about that, with a less hagiographic description of what it's like in a Tesla factory. You can easily find more like this about his other companies.

[Monkey]

Well done take the most sinister look at Elon and exacerbate it

kyle, almost every article that you link originates from x.com. You are doing the exact same thing but in the opposite direction. Plus, that video wasn't as bad as you claim at all; the only thing I really didn't like about it was that the guy insulted Elon's looks several times. His looks should have nothing to with it; his character and behaviour should though.

I wasn't trying to trigger you, I was trying to get you to see things from a different viewpoint. I don't think it worked though.

Attacking my descendants like you know them, is not the best way to trigger looking at something in different view.

You mean ancestors and I wasn't attacking them, I was stating facts about the history of your country and how there was a good chance that at least some of your ancestors would have been involved in the same types of crime that you abhor. This should have made you think about things a bit differently, showing you that things aren't always as clear cut as they may at first seem. You failed to understand this and you took it as some kind of personal attack on your family, which, of course, it wasn't

Are you one of those people who celebrated Paula Deen loosing her show on food network because of things she had said in her distant past?

I don't know who she is because I'm not American, kyle. You automatically assumed, incorrectly, that I would. I don't. Our television channels/programmes here in the UK have a lot of differences to yours. This shows again how America is your bubble and your only frame of reference. I'm going to make an assumption now, about you, myself. I expect you to correct me if I'm wrong:

You have never visited another country with the possible exception of Canada.

[Z-Man]

Heh, I knew Word would have a thing or two to say about actual History

On Ukraine: All the death and suffering is 100% to be blamed on Russia/Putin. They could stop it right away by withdrawing from the country. Yes, it is this exceptionally simple.
The peace solution where Russia gets to keep the occupied parts is flawed. That was the state after Russia took the Crimean Peninsula and, well, we saw that this was not a permanent peace. It still may be what we will end up with, but the decision whether that is an acceptable concession is with Ukraine. They're the victims and the ones paying the true price, which is not measured in Dollars. If they want to keep on fighting, we should support that. If they want this to just end and live with whatever they have left, we should make sure they get real safety guarantees, Putin's word does not count.

On violent ancestors: Be a bit careful with that. If you point out that white settlers invaded the rest of the world, you'll have to accept that those invaded would have had the right to defend themselves... and at that point you have locked yourself into the wrong narrative that the US are dealing with an invasion in the first place.

[Monkey]

Putin's word does not count.

This is what everyone must realise; the guy can not be trusted at all, ever.

On violent ancestors: Be a bit careful with that. If you point out that white settlers invaded the rest of the world, you'll have to accept that those invaded would have had the right to defend themselves... and at that point you have locked yourself into the wrong narrative that the US are dealing with an invasion in the first place.

Firstly, I should state that I fully accept some of my ancestors must have done just the same as kyle's ancestors (if not, even worse), as my country has probably, historically, stolen more countries and killed more people in doing so, than any other. In fact, some of my and kyle's ancestors are probably related anyway, as are myself and kyle, albeit distantly.

Secondly, I think I phrased it incorrectly as I don't believe that people fleeing to a country (legally or illegally) for a better life is the same as people killing other people to take over their country. I can see that it may seem I suggested that those fleeing to the US were committing the same crimes that he abhors when, actually, the crimes committed by his/my ancestors were far worse (and in many cases there are no real crimes committed at all by immigrants). I was trying to say that some of the kind of crimes that kyle abhors, in general, were very likely committed by some of his distant ancestors so he should be wary of criticising other people in general, for the same or less.

[Lucifer]

Secondly, I think I phrased it incorrectly as I don't believe that people fleeing to a country (legally or illegally) for a better life is the same as people killing other people to take over their country. I can see that it may seem I suggested that those fleeing to the US were committing the same crimes that he abhors when, actually, the crimes committed by his/my ancestors were far worse (and in many cases there are no real crimes committed at all by immigrants). I was trying to say that some of the kind of crimes that kyle abhors, in general, were very likely committed by some of his distant ancestors so he should be wary of criticising other people in general, for the same or less.

This is the only thing I'm jumping in on. The history of the US, as taught in US schools, is about how religious/political/economic refugees from European countries came to America and formed this "boiling pot" of cultures that gave us the "greatest country on Earth". That's the narrative as it's taught.

Obviously it glosses over the fact that there were people already here during these events, which took a couple of centuries to transpire.

So now, when it's brown people from south of the border coming over to join our boiling pot, it's not fine, it's an invasion, and whatnot. They're going to displace us. (There is a "displacement theory" that sits right next to "replacement theory" and is just as racist)

But before, when it was white Europeans doing literally the exact same thing, "displacing" the natives, that was fine, let's ignore that.

So I call hypocrisy. If you are a white person celebrating white America and its history, then to be true to your heritage, you must welcome immigrants now, and if you don't, you're a raging racist.

It's that simple.

Now, in my family history, of course, we came over as Italians at a time when Italians were considered socially equal to African Americans, and they were newly freed slaves. The phrase "wop n*****r" was tossed around at that time. Then there's an English woman, part of the Pickering family who got disowned by her father for marrying and Italian American serviceman during WWII. So British Empire, baby! On the other side of the family, well, I'm a direct descendant of Joseph Smith, and you know the Mormon refugees that made their way to Utah became the oppressors as soon as they arrived. And on my mom's mom's side of the family, you get German immigrants. So I'm a direct result of the "melting pot" narrative, and naturally, I welcome immigrants, legal or otherwise, to come here looking for a better life.

[kyle]

Sinewav: As far as the US debt, I do think we are at a big inflection point right now and back when we last talked about it, 10 years ago, it probably wasn't that bad. The bigger issues are just starting to loom, automation has been keeping us afloat for a while, any maybe we will see AGI soon enough that will continue to help, but with a shrinking working class and a growing retirement group that yields a case for more debt to continue to grow and less income to service that debt, meaning to service out debt right now takes 25% of the income, but with those 2 factors, that number will keep growing, until servicing our debt takes more of the money we have vs income, As I already proved taxing billionaires more is not going to help this. We need a simpler tax code and we need to cut the wasteful spending.

Word: So because Elon might have inhered 0.00003% of his wealth he's not self made? It's not easy to get that kind of return on money, you have to be smart and have a great sense of what the world needs and be able to allocate the money effectively. I also looked up what Tim mentioned to Elon to do, I now see why they were not thinking about placing it in the ship, basically they added tanks in for the fuel and LOX , which would help on assent which is mostly done via the booster, I don't think the ship benefits at all from it while in orbit. Those employees talking about how Elon benefited them, that don't need to suck up to him to keep their jobs, even doing this they could be terminated anyway. but they are not. As far as factory conditions go, yes the fremont factory was horrible in 2018, I think this was due to the insane volume growth that they had, in 2019 Elon took the lead on figuring out how to improve the working conditions, and I believe they are now safer than others car manufacture plants in north America.

Monkey: I was just asking about Paula Deen, not attempting to label you that way, and forgot you likely would not have known who that was or the controversy, sorry about that anyway. One of my ancestors actually snuck onto the ship to come over here without paying but again, different times, several different languages and even crazier communication gaps than there are today.

With Russia, there is a tough spot we are in, we fight them back,we loose lives, they likely attack the US and now we are in a much bigger war, or we actually attempt to negotiate and figure out a way to settle the conflict. To me the continued fighting is childish, negotiations is the more mature route, and should have been done as Russia started militarising the border, before they took the land they wanted.

With illegal migrants, I thought I've said this enough, but everyone keeps picking up on the minor details of it. I'm 100% for legalized immigration, were people are fully vetted that enter this country. Most of the illegal ones we should have a better pathway for them to enter legally. But I'm against the very very small portion of those illegal immigrants that are rapists and killers. I don't want something like 9/11 happening again because of careless practices at our borders.

[Lucifer]

One of my ancestors actually snuck onto the ship to come over here without paying but again, different times, several different languages and even crazier communication gaps than there are today.

...

With illegal migrants, I thought I've said this enough, but everyone keeps picking up on the minor details of it. I'm 100% for legalized immigration, were people are fully vetted that enter this country.

Like your ancestor was? Is this the kind of ancestor that, if they hadn't come over, you wouldn't be here? Do you owe at least part of your very existence to an illegal immigrant?

[sinewav]

But before, when it was white Europeans doing literally the exact same thing, "displacing" the natives, that was fine, let's ignore that.

To add to this, a friend of mine of Polish descent likes to throw our the "invasion" line as he defends European immigrants for "doing it the right way." I pointed out that at one time the Polish were considered invaders and that's why there is a whole genre of Polish jokes. Same with Italians, Irish, Jewish, Chinese, etc, and all the negative stereotypes that go with them. He had a little bit of an awakening.

Sinewav: As far as the US debt, I do think we are at a big inflection point right now and back when we last talked about it, 10 years ago, it probably wasn't that bad. The bigger issues are just starting to loom...

I'd like you to convince me with hard evidence there is any danger. Again, the day of reckoning is always right around the corner yet never arrives. Austerity practices have only ever existed to enrich the wealthy and well-connected, and changing the tax code won't do anything without enforcement because enforcement is something the ultra wealthy somehow never have to deal with. Also, if you are worried about the dollar being the reserve currency then you shouldn't worry about Yuan or Ruble but instead worry about the Euro... or is the EU not scary enough? Because if the USD isn't the reserve currency then it will likely fall to the EUR to take it's place. So just buy some of them.