US Election 2016

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Lucifer
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US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer »

Ok, here's the catch-all thread for election discussion. As usual, try to keep it civil. I realize there's a certain amount of debatery that calls for dramatics from time to time, so stay cool.

Anyway, here's the score:

Hillary "won" Ioway, but only managed a few extra delegates over Bernie. She's got just over half of the superdelegates, so she's still the frontrunner, in delegate counts.

Bernie trashed the living shit out of her in New Hampshire, a state she won handily when she went against Obama. We're talking a 21 point win, though. There's still a question on whether or not Bernie can get african-americans to his side, and he *can't* win the nomination if he can't do that.

On the GOP side, Trump lost Ioway. Cruz got it, with Rubio a close third.

But today, in New Hamster, Trump won handily, with Kasich, of all people, carving out a solid second place. His second place doesn't represent a challenge to Trump, but it was solid compared to the other governors and Cruz.

I think Rubio is finished, and that Bush will hang in for the VP nomination. His dad got to president that way, after all. I don't know if Kasich has any staying power, so Cruz might still be Trump's biggest contender. Christie will announce his way out of the race tomorrow or so, followed by Fiorina and the other single digit candidates. There's only four left that are viable on that side.

On the dem side, there's only the two candidates, and Bernie got what he needed today to show that he's a contender. That means he can start tapping the remaining superdelegates who have remained uncommitted, and he can go after DNC funds, hopefully.

But here's what I wonder most of all: Hillary got blind-sided by Obama's surprisingly competent campaign and grassroots support. Her campaign self-destructed in March '08. Was she prepared for Bernie, this time?
Last edited by Lucifer on Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Fixed the important typos that sinewav requested
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Re: US Electio

Post by sinewav »

Brief typo discussion: In the Music Man, Iowa is pronounced "Ioway". New Hampshire residents call the state "New Hamster". I know, I have family there. Other than the subject line, all other typos are the same incidental typos you'd expect on a forum. --Lucifer

Disclaimer: I am a registered Independent.

This election year has thus far been a complete disaster. Several months ago I made the claim that a Bush/Rubio team would be hard to beat in the general election. Neither of these guys had their campaigns together. I'm equal parts relieved and disappointed by this and the reasons why would take pages to explain. About two weeks ago, after some deep thinking, I have decided to put my money on Cruz getting the GOP nod. Naturally, I don't see any realistic way for Trump to take the nomination, and I'm sure that many Trump supporters will forget that New Hampshire is not a a good representation of the US electorate. Kasich got second place! (For the record, I really like Kasich and think he's the best the Republican Party has to offer.) But because NH is not representative of the US electorate I'm holding back any enthusiasm for Sander's win.

Sanders is the candidate I am most likely to vote for in the general election. Still, and it really, REALLY, troubles me to type this, and surely this is due to some cynicism about the United States, but Mrs. Clinton is probably the best person for the job of president over the next four years. *shudders* The reason why I'm specifying four years is because I believe whoever wins this election is a single-term president.

I think the United States needs to move in the direction Sanders is heading. I'm thrilled he is changing the conversation. However, I don't think the country is ready for him — yet. But if I get the chance to vote for him I will.
Last edited by Lucifer on Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Responded to sinewav's typo comment

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Word »

Have you seen this? I bet Sanders just needs a video like that.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer »

Well, on the GOP side, I think Kasich/Bush is the most electable ticket they have to offer, and that ticket could defeat Clinton. I don't think it can defeat Bernie. It can't defeat Bernie/Hillary, but I don't think she'd be willing to stand as veep candidate. She's getting old, and there's maybe one more presidential race she can contest, but she can win her feminist stripes by being the first woman elected to vice president, but I don't think Bernie would tap her for that. He should, that would be the most solid ticket they can offer (Hillary/Bernie would be a solid ticket too, I just don't think it's as strong as Bernie/Hillary).

Ok, still on the GOP side, even though I said most of what I have to say on the Dem side... ;)

The problem with Trump is that he's unelectable. He's said a bunch of crap that may fire people up for the primaries, but in the general election he's going to eat every word he's said. He's cooling it, trying to "presidential" up his image, but he's only been doing that for 8 days. It's like, he realized the prank is over and he either has to quit or keep going, and the polls say to keep going. But he's unelectable. If he wins, we lose our alliance with the UK, we risk getting kicked out of NATO, and we'll start bleeding trade partners like there's no tomorrow. Our economy will crash before he even gets sworn in because of the loss of trade. We risk war with Mexico, Canada building a wall and billing us for it (that's a joke). Not to mention he'll probably authorize the use of tactical nukes in Syria, which by treaty we're not supposed to have, but we totally have it. That would basically force a Russian invasion. And THAT is all what happens if he tries to keep his promises that got him elected in the first place! I mean, there's no way Trump can be president. He may win the nomination, but he won't win the general election. We'd rather elect Scooby Dooby Doo.

Cruz winning Ioway means that there are GOP in Ioway that don't want to elect Trump and want to field a candidate that might be able to beat the Dem candidate. In New Hamster, it's different, because it's a primary and not a caucus. The GOP voters are downright pissed at their choices. It's too bad they can't see that their most electable ticket is actually establishment politicians. I'd prefer it be Kasich/Christie, but you know Christie's about to drop out. If Kasich wins, he might still tap Christie for veep.

So, on the democrat side, New Hamster is a huge win for Bernie, but not because it means anything about delegates (he pulls ahead in state-won delegates, but Hillary's got slightly more than half of superdelegates already wrapped up). It's a win because he's showing he can do more than narrowly lose to her (like in Ioway), he can clean the floor with Hillary's panties. That's what he did in New Hamster. 21 point win? Unthinkable! But HE did it. That means he has more fundraising opportunities, and he can start targeting the undeclared super-delegates. He can actually close the gap on delegates. The big problem with his campaign is that black voters in particular are for Hillary. Other ethnic minorities are roughly evenly split, but Super Tuesday is in a few weeks, and that's mostly southern states with large black voter blocs that currently stand for Hillary. If Bernie can't sway them, he'll lose Super Tuesday, and likely that'll put him out of the race.

Then there's Bloomberg, considering a third party run. If the GOP really does put up Trump, or a likewise whacko combination, Bloomberg will run. I guarantee it. And he'll run as a third party. He'll suck all the center votes from each campaign. In that case, Bernie is the best the Dems can throw up because Hillary's appeal is to the center, the very votes that Bloomberg will vacuum up. That'll throw the election to the crackpots the GOP nominated.

Then there's the possibility that Bernie will continue running, sucking up the left votes.

I'd love to see it, but I don't want to see the results, but I do believe the possibility exists at this moment that we could see four major presidential candidates in the general election. That would rock, but I don't want it to happen. All things considered.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by [Anonymous] »

The economy isn't something Trump looks forward to tackling. Trump offered up a bleak assessment of the U.S. economy but added that, in terms of fixing it, it's a task he'd rather skip.
"We're in a bubble," he said. "And, frankly, if there's going to be a bubble popping, I hope they pop before I become president because I don't want to inherit all this stuff. I'd rather it be the day before rather than the day after, I will tell you that." Despite his hesitancy, many Americans appear to believe a Trump presidency would be good for the economy. Voters believe he would be better prepared to handle the economy, taxes and create jobs than likely Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton.
For a debate focused on the economy, the discussion was actually pretty economics-light, at least for Trump. His biggest moments were his earnest admission of that his winning persona could have an actual weakness, an awkward tussle over his feelings about Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, and his implication that he might be packing a gun.
Some may call Trump a Racist but he did hit on some of his major campaign points, including a reduced-rate tax plan and getting corporations to bring money back into the United States. He also reiterated his promise to keep Medicare and Social Security around and untouched by creating a "really dynamic economy" and bringing jobs back from Japan, China and Mexico.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer »

@Anonymous: Nice copy and paste, there. You should probably cite your source, or we'll have to remove obvious copywrited content.

After looking more thoroughly at the results, I think the GOP's strongest ticket is the current weakest candidates, and it's going to be Bush/Kasich. I think that's their best ticket because it almost guarantees they get electoral college wins for Ohio (Kasich's home state) and Florida (Bush's home state), both being notorious swing states. As much as I want Sanders to run, there's a certain fun irony in the possibility of seeing another Bush v Clinton race.

Edit: I forgot to add this. Give it a few more states, but don't wait for Super Tuesday, and strategically the best thing Kasich can do is make a deal with Bush for veep (including policy negotiations to make Bush more like Kasich), then drop out and endorse Bush. That wouldn't change Bush's position for delegates, but it would put him just one delegate less than Rubio, and if Bush and Rubio both focus on Cruz, they can probably push Cruz out. Then Bush cuts a deal with Rubio (Secretary of State, maybe?), and Rubio drops out and endorses Bush. Based on current delegate counts, and assuming the pledged delegates for each candidate that drops out go to whoever they endorse, that would propel Bush in front of Trump, with 2 more delegates. If Cruz endorses Bush when he finally pushes out, that would give Bush a commanding lead.

I realize that's a whole lot of ifs, and they need to run at least one more state before making a move, but you know all the non-Trump candidates are going to endorse each other as each of them quits the race. So I say again, Trump can't win. ;)
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by sinewav »

Lucifer wrote:...I think the GOP's strongest ticket is the current weakest candidates...
I hadn't thought of the swing-state angle, but you're absolutely right. However, both Florida and Ohio went to Obama last time, so this is not a guarantee, home state or not!
Lucifer wrote:...if Bush and Rubio both focus on Cruz, they can probably push Cruz out.
This, I find hard to believe. Cruz is brilliant and handles himself much better in debates than Bush and Rubio. One reason I think Cruz will get the nomination is because he can easily follow the traditional candidate game plan, which is to start deep in your base and slowly move to the center. Bush and Rubio are already seen as "too moderate," and even though a lot of Republicans hate Cruz he has a fair share of followers. The whole government shutdown thing a few years ago wouldn't have been possible without Cruz, which also shows he can move people in office (albeit in a rather tyrannical way).

We all know the GOP's dilemma (and it has nothing to do with Trump). The Republicans haven't been able to get excited about a candidate since McCain. They need someone with a charming personality like, er... Obama. Rubio is almost that guy. They need someone who can heal the party from within. This all seems self-evident.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Ratchet »

I meant to post this earlier: your joking spelling of "Ioway" is oddly irking because, in actuality, it would still be spelled Iowa even if the pronunciation was "Ioway," as you put it.

Source
Excerpt:
"...'Iowa' is actually pronounced with the long A sound at the end, opposed to the pronunciation of the state of Iowa."


Contribution to thread:

God, I'm afraid of Trump. I'm actually pulling for Cruz. He seems to be the least evil piece of shit in the race, really. Opinions may vary, of course. I particularly like how well he takes Trump's shit without jabbing back and making himself look like Cam Newton after the Super Bowl.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer »

I'm being intentionally explicit in spelling Ioway like I do. It's a Music Man thing. ;)
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer »

Ok, so, Scalia's dead. We're past the point where we should all pay our respects, let's talk about politics.

A) The GOP wants to wait until after the election to nominate a replacement to the SCOTUS.

B) The Dems want to nominate someone now, and get him/her confirmed well before the election.

Your take? Also, how will this little battle influence the election?
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer »

Ahhh, here's the post I was saving for when the forums came back up:
sinewav wrote:
Lucifer wrote:...I think the GOP's strongest ticket is the current weakest candidates...
I hadn't thought of the swing-state angle, but you're absolutely right. However, both Florida and Ohio went to Obama last time, so this is not a guarantee, home state or not!
Well, home states are never truly guaranteed, but when the people on the ticket are popular in their home state, that's as close as you get, and last I checked, both Bush and Kasich were quite popular in their home states. Ted Cruz, not so much, but I don't think Texas is ready to turn blue quite yet.
Lucifer wrote:...if Bush and Rubio both focus on Cruz, they can probably push Cruz out.
This, I find hard to believe. Cruz is brilliant and handles himself much better in debates than Bush and Rubio. One reason I think Cruz will get the nomination is because he can easily follow the traditional candidate game plan, which is to start deep in your base and slowly move to the center. Bush and Rubio are already seen as "too moderate," and even though a lot of Republicans hate Cruz he has a fair share of followers. The whole government shutdown thing a few years ago wouldn't have been possible without Cruz, which also shows he can move people in office (albeit in a rather tyrannical way).
Cruz is as much hated by the established GOP as Trump. In fact, the establishment are downright pissed about the whole Tea Bagger movement. They can't move far enough to the center to win the independents they need to be able to win the election in the first place because every time they try, all the Tea Baggers threaten to not show up. And Cruz is one of the Tea Baggers.

The GOP knows it *needs* to run a candidate who can actually go to the center, and both Bush and Kasich have solid records on that, where Kasich's is stronger, but Bush can play up his dad.

I'm not discounting Cruz as merely a phenomenon. He's a real contender. But he's also, what, a first-term senator? Kasich and Bush both have strong gubernatorial experience. I realize Obama was a first-term senator in 2008, so it's obviously possible. But his biggest opponent was also just a senator. There's long been a preference to elect governors over senators.

Anyway, Kasich and Bush need to tighten up debate performances, obviously, but there are avenues of attack on Cruz that could take him down.

Speaking on whiches, on the other side of the field, Hillary now has a lot more experience than she did in 2008. Those four years of being Secretary of State should raise her credentials quite a bit higher than they were in 2008. Bernie just happens to be able to counter it with zillions of years in the legislature.
We all know the GOP's dilemma (and it has nothing to do with Trump). The Republicans haven't been able to get excited about a candidate since McCain. They need someone with a charming personality like, er... Obama. Rubio is almost that guy. They need someone who can heal the party from within. This all seems self-evident.
I think the budget fight Paul Ryan is about to deal with is going to affect the election a lot more than you might otherwise expect. If he can reign in the Tea Baggers and other right-wing idealogues and get a bill passed, that's going to signal a change in republican leadership and appeal to voters who are sick of worrying when the next shut-down is going to happen. Cruz would be weakened significantly. Whether it would be enough to raise someone else's start, I don't know.

But hey, I did the math. Trump's got 17 delegates and he's the "frontrunner". But there's 33 that got distributed amongst his opponents. Since few, if any, will endorse him as they drop out, those delegates are out of reach to him. He has to win enough on his own. He can't rely on endorsements to strengthen his position.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by sinewav »

Lucifer wrote:They can't move far enough to the center to win the independents they need to be able to win the election in the first place because every time they try, all the Tea Baggers threaten to not show up. And Cruz is one of the Tea Baggers.

The GOP knows it *needs* to run a candidate who can actually go to the center, and both Bush and Kasich have solid records on that, where Kasich's is stronger, but Bush can play up his dad.
Great points. I've also seen some recent mainstream media attention pointed at Jeb! in a good way, so maybe we can't write him off just yet. I guess it's possible we can have a Kasich or Bush vs Clinton match-up in November. In that case I feel like it is a tough call who becomes president. From where I stand, Hillary wins on her resume and nothing else. I actually think Jeb! has more personality than her, even if it's an "embarrassing dad" type of personality. His occasionaly disarming stupidity makes him more trustworthy in my eyes, haha. Also, I kind of like typing Jeb! with the exclamation point. Jeb! It's fun. Furthermore, I think Kasich can maybe beat Hillary, which is interesting.
Lucifer wrote:A) The GOP wants to wait until after the election to nominate a replacement to the SCOTUS.

B) The Dems want to nominate someone now, and get him/her confirmed well before the election.

Your take? Also, how will this little battle influence the election?
A) would be unprecedented so it has to be B). Obama has another 300+ days in office and we can't have a vacant seat that long.

Here's the thing that sucks about Scalia's passing: In addition to the shit ton of presidential candidates to think about, now we will be flooded with candidates for Justice and they are used as currency in campaigns. Ugh. I don't even know where to begin. It's just overload.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer »

Well, the field is still volatile. The only thing we know with any real certainty (besides Trump being an asshole) is that Ben Carson's campaign is dead in the water. I don't know why he hasn't cut his losses and jetted.

I might actually be ok with a Bush/Kasich ticket. I won't vote for it, I'm already decided on Bernie, and if he doesn't pull out the nomination, I'll proudly vote for Hillary. So I'm already a decided voter.

I think the best strategic move the bottom 3 GOP candidates can make (excluding Ben Carson, obviously) is for them to team up, pick a Bush/Kasich ticket, but keep it to themselves. Use Rubio as attack dog and let Bush and Kasich sit back and act all presidential. Wait, that describes the last debate, doesn't it? ;)

I honestly wish Scalia had died 7 years ago. I don't wish death on many people, but Scalia was as close to Palpatine as we've had in government--ever. And I'd rather he not have participated in the Citizens United vote. Be that as it may, I can't wait to see who Obama tosses onto the chopping block.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Word »

Do you think Scalia was murdered?

I loved that Colbert-version of Ben Carson's delayed entrance. I'm rooting for Bernie Sanders, but I still have doubts he can beat the Clintons. I really don't care about the GOP as long as they're in self-destruction mode, though it's different from the previous two times when Donald Trump wasn't as omnipresent, and taken seriously, as he is now.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by compguygene »

Word wrote:Do you think Scalia was murdered?
Check out this article.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/ ... 830372.php

For those that don't want to read the whole article and just the relevant part to the discussion.
"We discovered the judge in bed, a pillow over his head. His bed clothes were unwrinkled," said Poindexter.
"He was lying very restfully. It looked like he had not quite awakened from a nap," he said.
Scalia,79, did not have a pulse and his body was cold, and after consulting with a doctor at a hospital in Alpine, Poindexter concluded resuscitation would have been futile, He then contacted federal authorities, at first encountering a series of answering services because he was calling on a weekend.
This detail was not reported elsewhere. A GUY SLEEPING WITH A PILLOW ON HIS HEAD? I am not saying that this screams murder. But, it is pretty darned questionable. It was ruled natural causes without an autopsy.
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