US Election 2016

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sinewav
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by sinewav »

Lucifer wrote:In the US, Kasich took Ohio (his first real win), and the pundits are trying to predict a contested convention.
After Kasich took Washington DC I realized that he was the new Establishment candidate. Now the Establishment needs to do something with Cruz so they can tackle Trump. I bet there are a lot of unconventional back-room deals going on right now.
Lucifer wrote:Meanwhile, Bernie's staffers are saying that Hillary has blown her load and the rest of the map looks very favorable to him.
Quite possible. Mrs. Clinton's campaign is probably surprised at the amount of resistance they are seeing, but I wonder if statistically there is nothing the Sanders campaign can do other than "keep the message out there."

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer »

sinewav wrote:
Lucifer wrote:In the US, Kasich took Ohio (his first real win), and the pundits are trying to predict a contested convention.
After Kasich took Washington DC I realized that he was the new Establishment candidate. Now the Establishment needs to do something with Cruz so they can tackle Trump. I bet there are a lot of unconventional back-room deals going on right now.
The problem there is that Cruz doesn't deal, that's why we hate him as a senator in the first place. I don't see Cruz and Kasich making a deal. Kasich can court many of the same voters Trump can court, but he's coming off too often as something of a crackpot. He's wildly popular in Ohio, and he apparently was quite the governor there, so he's eminently qualified. But Cruz doesn't deal. He shuts down.

So I'm not sure what options there may be. I really hoped Rubio would fare better, and I hate to say this, but I also retroactively wish Bush had done much better. Trump might still be the frontrunner, but if Rubio and Bush had run better campaigns, they might be able to guarantee denying Trump the nod before the convention at this point. Instead, Cruz and Kasich are the last hopes, and they're not good hopes (Kasich is a good hope, but his campaign isn't that strong. I really think he's been running for the Veep position this whole time).
Lucifer wrote:Meanwhile, Bernie's staffers are saying that Hillary has blown her load and the rest of the map looks very favorable to him.
Quite possible. Mrs. Clinton's campaign is probably surprised at the amount of resistance they are seeing, but I wonder if statistically there is nothing the Sanders campaign can do other than "keep the message out there."
I think Bernie underperformed too much in early states. Yeah, sure, he can still win the nomination, and the rest of the map is favorable to him. But it's not solidly favorable, and Hillary still has the best chances, I think. So, I guess we'll have to see. It's a toss-up, but it's a toss-up that strongly favors Hillary. When it was Obama in 2008, at this point, he was pulling ahead in pledged delegates. Of course, he also ran a brilliant campaign, the likes of which had never been seen before, and still haven't been seen again (his 2012 campaign was much more traditional since it was for re-election).
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Word »

Lucifer wrote:That's interesting, Word, especially since I thought Merkel was a good fit and has helped Germany recover from that nasty recession quite well.
In a way she did, but I'd argue that because of her policies, many of the poorer EU countries got more dependent on us than they should have, especially Greece which is currently the poorest EU country but at the same time its people and politicians show the most support for the refugees. I give her credit for saving the status quo, but she doesn't seem to do much to better the quality of the average worker's life. And culturally, we don't develop much either - the conservative laws to fight climate change are a joke, and the efforts to promote technological progress (e.g. internet-start-ups) seem to be virtually non-existent. And there's TTIP which the majority of the EU population (that of Germany included) seems to reject, but she wants to push it through at all cost.
I feel like Merkel used the internet and infrastructure ministry as a dumpster for her coalition partner, just like she has used virtually all German EU ministries to get rid of people she doesn't want in a position of power (can't really blame her, but of course I wish there were more competent people present).

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Olive »

Not voting saves you a lot of time, effort and frustration.

Would prefer to live under stable one-party rule than the pseudodemocracies of the west.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer »

Ok, I wrote a script to predict the democrat side of the primaries. Here's results:

Code: Select all

Results as of last election:
    Candidate            Delegates          Win/Loss Ratio    Watershed Win/Loss Ratio
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Hillary Clinton      1266               54.95              34.07
    Bernie Sanders       1038               45.05              65.93

Predicted Results:
    Candidate            Delegates | Watershed Delegates | Predicted All | Predicted Watershed | All Difference | Watershed Difference
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Hillary Clinton      1266           93                   2228             1860                    155               523
    Bernie Sanders       1038          180                   1823             2191                    560               192

Total delegates available: 4051
Total delegates remaining: 1747

Bernie will pass Hillary on 4-26, in Rhode Island, and the score will be 1521:1514.

Coming primaries/caucuses:
     Day   |                       State | Bernie Sanders | Hillary Clinton | Total
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     4-05                      Wisconsin         57                29          86
     4-09                        Wyoming          9                 5          14
     4-19                       New York        163                84         247
     4-26                    Connecticut         36                19          55
                                Delaware         14                 7          21
                                Maryland         63                32          95
                            Pennsylvania        125                64         189
                            Rhode Island         16                 8          24
     5-03                        Indiana         55                28          83
Everything involving "watershed" is basically the part where I calculate different results based on last Tuesday's election results. Bernie's side has been saying the rest of the map favors of them, so I wrote this script to test that hypothesis. It simply uses Bernie's win/loss ratio from that day (last Tuesday) and predicts future results based on that, adding in new election results as they happen. This includes election results from Saturday, with Bernie's win/loss ratio modified accordingly.

Where it says "All", that uses the win/loss ratio for all elections that have happened. Watershed is from last Tuesday. All includes all results, including all the watershed results, but averaged together. Watershed is only from last Tuesday.

Where it says that Bernie overtakes, that's based on the hypothesis that Bernie does well the rest of the primaries. Which is the fundamental point of the script.

Finally, where it says "Coming primaries/caucuses", those are predictions. Take them with a grain of salt.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer »

New predictions that include today's tie in Wyoming.

Code: Select all

Results as of last election:
    Candidate            Delegates          Win/Loss Ratio    Watershed Win/Loss Ratio
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Hillary Clinton      1309               54.52              36.76
    Bernie Sanders       1092               45.48              63.24

Predicted Results:
    Candidate            Delegates | Watershed Delegates | Predicted All | Predicted Watershed | All Difference | Watershed Difference
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Hillary Clinton      1309          136                   2208             1915                    175               468
    Bernie Sanders       1092          234                   1840             2133                    543               250

Total delegates available: 4048
Total delegates remaining: 1647

Bernie will pass Hillary on 5-17, in Oregon, and the score will be 1639:1628.

Coming primaries/caucuses:
     Day   |                       State | Bernie Sanders | Hillary Clinton | Total
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     4-19                       New York        156                91         247
     4-26                    Connecticut         35                20          55
                                Delaware         13                 8          21
                                Maryland         60                35          95
                            Pennsylvania        120                69         189
                            Rhode Island         15                 9          24
     5-03                        Indiana         52                31          83
     5-07                           Guam          4                 3           7
     5-10                  West Virginia         18                11          29
While the good news is that the Predicted All is showing Bernie gaining delegates overall, the bad news is that Bernie's win/loss ratio isn't good enough to win with pledged delegates, and the date and state at which he overtakes Hillary keeps getting pushed farther back.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by sinewav »

I am shocked at how well Mr Sanders is holding up. My jaw dropped when he won Wisconsin.

Election talk has been light at most places I visit on the Internet, which is a relief. I expect it to take off again in a couple weeks, not that I'm looking forward to it. By this point everyone knows who they will vote for do the discussion quality can only decrease from here on out.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Word »

I'll link these two articles here. I still hope you guys get Sanders instead of Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/08/opini ... .html?_r=0
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/07/upsho ... banks.html

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer »

sinewav wrote:I am shocked at how well Mr Sanders is holding up. My jaw dropped when he won Wisconsin.

Election talk has been light at most places I visit on the Internet, which is a relief. I expect it to take off again in a couple weeks, not that I'm looking forward to it. By this point everyone knows who they will vote for do the discussion quality can only decrease from here on out.
I'm intentionally avoiding talking about the liberal candidates because I see very little point. At least, here, where we have a large non-voting population (or a large voting population that votes in other countries). I'm treating it more like a spectator sport, and focusing on the disaster that is the GOP primary. You know, except for my script, which I wrote to test the hypothesis that the rest of the map favors Bernie enough that he's still a contender.

But on the subject of the Democratic candidates, I don't think the reporter asking the questions quite knew what to ask for. Bernie answered his questions unambiguously. Perhaps the reporter should have asked "What process do you want to follow while breaking up a bank?" Probably the reason the reporter didn't ask those more specific questions is because he knew ahead of time the answer would be something like "it'll have to be on a case by case basis", because that's the only way it CAN happen. How you break up JPMorgan will, out of necessity, be different than how you break up Chase, or whatever. When the breakups happen, you want to be left with a bunch of much smaller, independent banks that still have the same collective economic power they had, they just aren't able to fail as one large collective unit. How assets are assigned from a national banking entity in a way that creates strong local banks depends entirely on what assets the bank has and where they're located. Every bank is going to have similarities, but they're still going to be different.

I'm a little surprised Bernie didn't throw that out there, because he knows that's how it has to work, and he can't give any specific procedures for breaking up any banks until he has the legislation in place that allows him to collect the information he needs to start making plans for each bank that'll get broken up.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Word »

I'm a little surprised Bernie didn't throw that out there, because he knows that's how it has to work, and he can't give any specific procedures for breaking up any banks until he has the legislation in place that allows him to collect the information he needs to start making plans for each bank that'll get broken up.
I agree. I also think it's actually smarter if he doesn't go into details about this before getting elected because 1) his rivals would jump at every little uncertainty and 2) the bank lobby would know exactly what he does, and thus how to fight him and in general have more time to react.

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Re: US Election 2016

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Has anybody noticed that in the U.S. Election the results of the Presidential Primaries are now being decided by the party elites? In Wisconsin, Clinton is given delegates that she doesn't deserve. In Indiana, it has already been declared that even if Trump wins, the delegates are going to Cruz.

I know you guys are not going to like me quoting an infowars article,. But this article references and quotes what we can all agree on as reputable sources.
Inforwars.com wrote: Colorado was rigged back in August when the GOP decided it would not allow the people to vote in the early nomination process.
“The GOP executive committee has voted to cancel the traditional presidential preference poll after the national party changed its rules to require a state’s delegates to support the candidate that wins the caucus vote,” the Denver Post reported at the time.
Bernie Sanders won the vote in Wyoming by a 12-percentage point margin. The victory was reported as having more of a “psychological than mathematical impact” because Clinton ended up with most of the delegates. Despite the win, Sanders was forced to split plebian delegates with Clinton and the former secretary of state picked up all the party arranged superdelegates.
“Bernie Sanders won Wyoming by 12 percent, but he might not even pick up a single delegate. Hillary Clinton was awarded 11 delegates, Bernie Sanders only seven,” Joe Scarborough said Monday morning. “Why does the Democratic Party even have voting booths? This system is so rigged.”
Co-host Mika Brzezinski chimed in by saying Democrats are “always talk[ing] about voter turnout and how important it is to do your duty as a citizen, but there’s absolutely no reason any of those people voted.”
The above quote is from the following MSNBC Video entitled "Joe: Democratic Primary System Rigged Against Voters | Morning Joe | MSNBC"

So, from rules that date back to the '60's and '70's with some rules from the last 2 elections, the Primary election decision is being completely taken out of the hands of the people.
The Primary Elections are a joke, a staged play. Those of us living in the U.S.A. might as well live in China in regards to the voice we have in selecting our President.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by kyle »

and stare presidential primaries need to be held the same day, the majority wins. No results should be announced until all polling stations are closed.

There still should be a trail of debates across the country prior to voting.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by sinewav »

Please, let us all remember that political parties are private organizations, and while everyone in the US has a right to vote in the United States general election, no such rights are extended to how private organizations elect their own members or representatives. Don't like your Democratic or Republican choices? Pick someone else or start a new party. Don't like that we have an unbreakable two-party system? Well, the answer to that problem has nothing to do with primaries and delegates.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by compguygene »

sinewav wrote:Please, let us all remember that political parties are private organizations, and while everyone in the US has a right to vote in the United States general election, no such rights are extended to how private organizations elect their own members or representatives. Don't like your Democratic or Republican choices? Pick someone else or start a new party. Don't like that we have an unbreakable two-party system? Well, the answer to that problem has nothing to do with primaries and delegates.
QFT

I couldn't agree more. I have voted for a "3rd party candidate" almost every chance that I have had to do so.

It's the wasted vote myth and lesser evil voting that has really harmed the U.S.A,
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer »

Actually, Compguygene, while I don't have time to dig up links, there's sufficient statistical evidence indicating that the number of parties a polity can support is equal to the number of votes each citizen has + 1. We only get one vote each for president, so we can only ever be a two party system.

As to primary elections and laws and stuff (and ignoring the blatant propaganda in the Infowars article, since I'm obviously following the primaries more closely than that crackhead), while the rules are set by the parties, the elections themselves are held by the states and subject to voting laws. That's why it matters that there was widespread voting discrimination in Arizona, even though it was only a primary.

Anyway, gotta run.
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