US Election 2016

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Lucifer
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer » Wed Mar 02, 2016 11:40 am

sinewav wrote:
Lucifer wrote:But Trump played a trump card yesterday when he announced Chris Christie endorsed him. That was obviously timed to blunt any debate gains from Thursday, and Super Tuesday (next Tuesday) is the next round for the GOP.
I don't know that this will have the intended effect. Christie was shunned by the GOP so it won't make a difference to the Party and it doesn't add to Trump's legitimacy. Christie is an opportunist, just like Trump.
Oh man, have you seen all the "Looks like Christie was taken hostage" stuff?

My prediction: Christie is Mark Antony, Trump is Caesar. But unlike the story (where Mark Antony gets to be with Cleopatra), this will be a homicide-suicide, on stage in front of a bunch of people.
The problem I see going into Super Tuesday is that Rubio, Kasich, and Cruz were all solid contenders in the debate. None of them are dropping out voluntarily. The next few primaries are going to be a trainwreck. All the "not-Trump" votes will get diluted and people will have the false impression that Trump is a winner and can beat Clinton or Sanders.

Gonna be a long spring.
That happened today. Trump won by over 40% in only a few states. In the others, he won in the 30's, and his next competitor (Rubio or Cruz in most, Kasich in one) was low 30's or high 20's.

Trump's not winning, but he is winning. At this point, we can bet that Cruz supporters will go to Trump, at least the lion's share, if Cruz drops out. But Cruz won, what, 3 states? And Rubio only one. That means Trump won 7 states.

I guess we'll see what happens. I'm not prepared to predict anything other than Christie looking obviously suicidal (I've seen that look too many times, I know what it looks like).

On the Dem side, I think Hillary's gotten the win. She hasn't sealed it, Bernie can still win, but I don't think he will. He's just not getting the minority support he needs to beat her, and she's getting more than enough minority support to beat him. In the general election, that *will* translate into electoral votes for her, but even if he started making inroads, it may not translate into electoral votes for him. Trump is sucking his votes away.

So, Trump is the ultimate fellatrix. I think we've seen enough to determine that.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by kyle » Wed Mar 02, 2016 1:22 pm

Trump and Christie really is not that shocking, they pretty much so agreed with minor differences during the past debates. and watching Trump's speech, you could see some of Christie's ideas come out of Trump's mouth.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Word » Fri Mar 04, 2016 12:21 am


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Re: US Election 2016

Post by sinewav » Fri Mar 04, 2016 7:31 am

That speech was fantastic, and not just because of it's content. Mr. Romney is a great speaker.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer » Fri Mar 04, 2016 2:15 pm

I didn't watch the speech, just read the analysis. I really don't like watching Romney talk, but I agree he's a good speaker.

So, it's been quite the eventful week, hasn't it? Christie turned in Jar-Jar, Trump cleaned up on Super Tuesday, Romney's kicking off the NeverTrump movement, and the debate is showing serious cracks in the GOP's constituency. I feel like today is the day in Back to the Future III where Marty is walking around with a photo that can't resolve who gets killed because the days events are so in flux that even the timeline hasn't sorted itself out yet.

And tomorrow there's four more states, KS, KY, LA, and ME. 155 delegates, but 23 of them are winner-takes-most. This is GOP only, the dems have three states tomorrow, and KS is the only one in common. Then there's another on Sunday, and another couple two days after that...

I have no idea what's going to happen next. I couldn't even guess it. I feel like the GOP is in the process of splitting into two parties, like it did when Roosevelt and Taft has that falling out, and let the idjit Wilson win. Romney's arguing "Anybody but Trump", and several GOP'ers have come out and said they'd vote for Hillary if Trump wins the nomination. Soo..... what?

They're saying Trump's core is moderate Republicans, and he claims he can get the Reagen Democrats over. I have a question: How many Reagen Democrats are still alive? I mean, they didn't go for Bush in 1988, so they last showed their existence in 1984. That was quite awhile ago in terms of elections. Way before Clinton's New Democrats and Gingrich's Contract with America that drove the GOP even farther to the right.

Anyway, I digress. Trump is also proving you don't even have to go to church to appeal to evangelicals, and you can be a bit shady on abortion, as long as you simultaneously appeal to both hate and the economy. See, his immigration policy is actually going to be really hard to beat, because it plays on both. He's saying kick out the illegal immigrants, then give those jobs to inner-city blacks and others who are struggling to find work. If you're even a little bit racist (especially if you're a casual racist that usually doesn't know you have racist views), that sounds awfully appealing. What's Romney offering? Nothing!

The GOP as it has existed, you know, the one where Gingrich could pull off his Contract with America and that could turn around and give Dubya two terms, invade everybody, etc, THAT GOP depends on low-to-middle class white people voting against their self-interests in order to get their social issues taken care of (usually the focus is on abortion), while guaranteeing that rich people will prosper. But those are the voters who are tired of struggling, many of whom are middle-aged now and have been struggling because the policies that are hurting us (I say us because I'm in that age demographic, but I'm no GOPer) were started when we were kids. THAT's Trump's base.

Romney ran on the same old platform: cut welfare, cut medicaid, cut taxes, and jobs will rain from my butt. So what's he offering?

I'm fairly certain the moderate Democrats aren't going to go out for Trump in droves, and even the really liberal ones that are going for Bernie, or they refuse to support Hillary are probably going to go out for Hillary if the race ends up Trump vs Hillary. But there's a lot of dissatisfied GOP voters that we haven't seen vote since the 90s that are showing up *now* to vote for Trump. The last 16 years worth of Democratic experience where they almost won twice, and did win twice; there's not enough collective experience winning against who's showing up.

So, what happens next? Lemme get that photo I got when I went forward in time to the GOP convention and keep an eye on it.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Gonzap » Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:34 pm

Meanwhile, in Spain, we still don't have a president after 2 months have passed since we voted!

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by aP|Nelg » Sat Mar 05, 2016 5:33 pm

Gonzap wrote:Meanwhile, in Spain, we still don't have a president after 2 months have passed since we voted!
That does sound a bit weird - what's going on?

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Recko » Sat Mar 05, 2016 8:36 pm

hope everything will be fine in spain soon.. :(

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by sinewav » Sun Mar 06, 2016 9:16 am

Some people believe the whole presidential election process is scripted by the Illuminati and is purely to entertainment the sheep. I don't believe this. But if it is true, damn, they really did a good job. I am very entertained. Every primary election leaves my head spinning.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Phytotron » Sun Mar 06, 2016 9:55 pm


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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Gonzap » Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:31 pm

aP|Nelg wrote:
Gonzap wrote:Meanwhile, in Spain, we still don't have a president after 2 months have passed since we voted!
That does sound a bit weird - what's going on?
Nobody was a clear winner and they can't manage to make a a 2 or 3 parties government. We're most likely going to new elections.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by pike » Sat Mar 12, 2016 1:59 pm

Gonzap wrote:Meanwhile, in Spain, we still don't have a president after 2 months have passed since we voted!
You still have a king though ;)

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Gonzap » Fri Mar 18, 2016 10:34 am

yeah! what a relieve! -_-

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Word » Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:40 pm

Hahaha. I'm so sorry Gonzap. I regulary read El País now that I'm learning Spanish and I really don't get why they just don't let that young, intelligent guy keep the job, haha.


As for Germany: You know, I used to be strongly opposed to Angela Merkel and her conservative party, but right now her efforts to deal with the refugee crisis deserve the words "humanitarian"/"social" more than anything our social democrats/green party does. I voted for the socialist party because in my district (Rhineland Palatine), the candidate from Merkel's party revolted against the chancellor's refugee policy (she tried to appeal to all the racists) and the social democrats of Rhineland Palatine have always been corrupt as shit (and as long as a neoliberal opportunist like Sigmar Gabriel is their boss, I'm not considering to vote for them anytime soon), so there wasn't really a good option left. The socialists got like 4% so they don't even qualify for opposition around here, but I guess that's better than a vote for our new discount nazi party, who are shockingly popular right now. The strange but perhaps expectable thing is that the liberals are gaining popularity again because they can use the refugee crisis to present themselves as a humanitarian party, but I'm getting the impression they basically want to get cheap slave labourers. Maybe Merkel does have the same in mind, since she seemed to do everything the neoliberal lobby told her to do in the past.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer » Sat Mar 19, 2016 3:36 am

That's interesting, Word, especially since I thought Merkel was a good fit and has helped Germany recover from that nasty recession quite well.

In the US, Kasich took Ohio (his first real win), and the pundits are trying to predict a contested convention. Meanwhile, Bernie's staffers are saying that Hillary has blown her load and the rest of the map looks very favorable to him.
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