US Election 2016

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by sinewav » Tue Feb 16, 2016 7:36 pm

compguygene wrote:A GUY SLEEPING WITH A PILLOW ON HIS HEAD? I am not saying that this screams murder. But, it is pretty darned questionable. It was ruled natural causes without an autopsy.
Not questionable at all. Sometimes I sleep with a pillow partially over my face. Also, if you are going to smother someone to death, why leave the pillow on their head after you take the time to dress up the murder scene? This "conspiracy" is ridiculous.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Word » Tue Feb 16, 2016 8:32 pm

Yeah, when I read the headlines that he was dead, I instantly thought some democrat probably shot the guy, but after more details surfaced and the first conspiracy theories appeared on newspaper sites today, it seemed completely unlikely to me and I asked myself the same thing. I read he had pain in his shoulder for days, so in retrospect that was probably a heart attack's way of announcing itself.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer » Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:35 am

Conspiracy theories aren't helpful here. Might as well argue that Cruz can't win because he was born in Canada. I don't see Scalia's death really affecting the election, at least not from the point of view of the candidates. People might think it matters, and pundits are predicting the liberal gains for the court for the next generation, but they missed a spot. The next two oldest and longest serving after Scalia are split, one liberal and one conservative. I'm figuring there's a 50% chance both will leave office in the next four years. So even if Obama creates a 5-4 liberal court, if the GOP win this election, they can swing that back to a 5-4 conservative court. After that, we're into Bush Sr nominees, who may last another 3-4 presidential elections, and then the Clinton nominees.

Ok, so, today, in Nevada, Hillary won the majority of caucus-goers and 18 delegates, Bernie won 14 delegates. In terms of state delegates, the two are still close to tied, but Bernie's losing ground (he didn't win all that much in New Hamster). I'm not seeing superdelegates backing away from Hillary the way they did in '08. This is Hillary's last chance to run, realistically, and the establishment wants her to have her run. Same way Dole won the 1996 primary, even though he lost the general election, and McCain again in 2008. They probably still want to see her run a cohesive campaign that doesn't break down like it did in '08, but I'm pretty sure that Bernie has to start winning decisive primaries and caucuses. If he keeps nickel-and-diming it, he can't win. He's not Obama, and the establishment, as well as many voters, really want Hillary to run in the general election. I'm not giving up on Bernie yet, because he's been finishing so close, but I think the democratic contest will be decided on Super Tuesday (March 1, for anybody who hasn't noticed it's almost here).

In South Carolina, Rubio upset Cruz for the second-place win, and might get some delegates out of. There's 50, and half are winner-take-all for the state, and Trump gets those, but the rest, save for 3, are winner-take-all on the district level, and Rubio did very well at that level. The big news is that Bush has dropped out, and Carson is still hanging in there. I can't imagine what Carson's thinking. It's like he's cosplaying a presidential candidate. Anyway, I read a commentary from Karl Rove who suggests that Trump has peaked, and his appeal is dropping. February 11th is the date he gives for Trump peaking. Rubio and Cruz, splitting the anti-establishment tea party vote, finally have enough votes together to beat Trump. The question is: will they call a truce and create the first ever Hispanic/Hispanic ticket? (Both are of Cuban descent, iirc) Rubio as attack dog to support a latent Bush/Kasich ticket is obviously out, now that Bush is out, and Rubio as attack dog might have managed to win his second place finish today. The other three, Bush, Carson, and Kasich, all finished each with single digit points. They're all finished, I believe, but I believe Kasich will hang in there to try to win a veep nomination. Of course, I've believed for some time that that's Kasich's endgame, he intends to get elected president in 2024, not 2016.

Next up: South Carolina has the democratic primary on the 27th. I'm calling Hillary on this one. Bernie just isn't penetrating the demographics he needs to penetrate to win anywhere in the south.

Nevada has GOP caucuses in just three days (2 now, since it's after midnight). I'm calling a win for a not-Trump, but I couldn't guess if it'll be Rubio or Cruz. Nevada is hostile to Trump. Too many rapists and murderers (read: Hispanics). In fact, Trump is weak all over the southwest.

After that, it's Super Tuesday, and I think both races will be decided then. I expect Ben Carson to keep cosplaying, and Kasich's veep bid depends on a third/fourth place rank after Super Tuesday, at which time he'll drop out. I expect Trump to lose on a scale he can't predict, and Cruz and Rubio will split the wins against Trump. I also expect Hillary to seal the deal, so to speak. Most of the Super Tuesday states are southern (including my home state), and Hillary is strong in the south.

I also suspect that after Super Tuesday, the GOP will be looking seriously at a ticket pairing Rubio and Cruz. They need the fence-mending that comes with that, just like they needed Reagan and Bush Sr on the same ticket to heal their party after a destructive primary season. And of whoever's left, it's the most electable ticket.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by sinewav » Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:12 am

That is a solid assessment Lucifer.

We are fast approaching the time when I actually start to pay attention to the campaigns. It is strange to type these words, but I'm disappointed Bush is out of the race. I think the next two weeks will be killer for the GOP. Surely Carson will drop out in the next couple days? I've still got my money on Cruz getting the nomination. If by some miracle Trump manages to scrape through the next several primaries, Cruz will likely mop the floor with him during the late season debates when each candidate has more time to argue points. Then again, a lot of Americans don't like big words, so Cruz might have to take a lesson from Trump and speak to his supporters in kindergarten-level English.

The whole Clinton vs Sanders thing is a roller-coaster. I get the feeling every state will be close battle regardless of what the polls say.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer » Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:26 am

sinewav wrote:That is a solid assessment Lucifer.
Thank you!
We are fast approaching the time when I actually start to pay attention to the campaigns. It is strange to type these words, but I'm disappointed Bush is out of the race. I think the next two weeks will be killer for the GOP. Surely Carson will drop out in the next couple days? I've still got my money on Cruz getting the nomination. If by some miracle Trump manages to scrape through the next several primaries, Cruz will likely mop the floor with him during the late season debates when each candidate has more time to argue points. Then again, a lot of Americans don't like big words, so Cruz might have to take a lesson from Trump and speak to his supporters in kindergarten-level English.
Don't forget that starting on March 17th, the GOP primaries are all winner-takes-all. They changed the rules to pick a nominee faster. If Trump enters those with the kind of momentum he has now, he will be the nominee.

If the GOP isn't down to 2 candidates by then, and this is only a few weeks away, then Trump is the current favorite. I'm not exactly sanguine to that, because I agree (I hate to say) with Karl Rove, that Trump has peaked, and will decline in the future, but we're only talking a few weeks.
The whole Clinton vs Sanders thing is a roller-coaster. I get the feeling every state will be close battle regardless of what the polls say.
And that's the problem. If every state is a close battle, the superdelegates will pick the candidate. As it stands right now, Hillary has the popular vote. Well, to the extent that you can have it when you factor in caucuses, and of the three states that have voted, two have been caucus states.

Superdelegates hate going against the popular vote, but Hillary's bagged like 3/5 of them so far. They're expecting her to win the popular vote. This is no longer like '08, when Obama was able to bag the popular vote while losing a state to Hillary. This is a different election. The superdelegates are going to continue to favor Hillary, unless Bernie gets some substantial wins. And like I said, those wins happen on Super Tuesday, or not at all.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by sinewav » Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:22 pm

Lucifer wrote:They're expecting her to win the popular vote.
I've also noticed some of my friends are closet Clinton supporters. That is, none of particularly like her, but agree she has an outstanding resume and would begrudgingly accept her as the Democratic nominee. :?

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Ratchet » Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:45 pm

There's also the current uproar about the Apple encryption case. I'm sure you're all aware of that. Virtually all of the candidates have in some way stated that they think Apple should fold to the government and give the FBI a backdoor into iOS. And, as Tim Cook has pointed out, that's impossible.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:32 am

Well, I'll vote for Hillary in November. It's vital to keep the GOP out of the white house this time around. Especially if Trump gets the nomination....

As for the Apple thing, I don't think that's going to affect the election. Also, I think Apple's going to lose that fight, and they know it, but they're gonna go down swinging. That makes Apple slightly less evil than Microsoft at this time, meaning they just switched places.

Ok, so, Nevada. :)

With 9.8% of precincts reporting, based on entrance polls, they're calling Trump the winner. Rubio's in solid second, 5 points or so up above Cruz. Carson is beating Kasich.

Interestingly, though, Cruz, Carson, and Kasich all had big gaffes this week. Cruz fired someone for telling lies about Rubio, Carson said Obama was raised white, and Kasich pointed out all the women who left their kitchens to help him win back in 1978 (which may be true, but isn't something a politician says in 2016). Of course, gaffes don't really influence elections that much, unless an opponent can really grab onto it. These are all pretty small. Carson's pretty much out of the race, and Kasich is staking out the Super Tuesday states as his last stand. After he loses big, even if he wins a state next week, I expect he'll quit it.

So that brings us to what's next. The next GOP event is Super Tuesday, and that's next week (March 1). The Dems are up on Saturday, I believe, with their South Carolina primary.

I'm predicting Rubio with a better finish in Nevada than where he's at right now, but he'll still be in second place. Other than the fact that Cruz won Ioway, that actually puts Rubio in the best position to seriously challenge Trump. So, Cruz needs to quit and let Rubio take it. Maybe the two could run as Crubio, because Ruz would just sound weird when spoken in a Texas accent. But Cruz will stay at least through Super Tuesday, as will Kasich. I won't be surprised if Carson finally quits, but he might stay in it for a bit. Is he even campaigning?

As for the Dems, the pundits are split roughly evenly on who's the better candidate. It's quite entertaining. I read like four articles each arguing either Hillary or Bernie's the better candidate. Black Lives Matter people have started campaigning for Hillary, which I first assumed would hand her the black vote she was already expecting. But then Spike Jones came out with a bunch of his cronies in favor of Bernie. So, that's interesting. I'm anticipating SC being a close one, with Hillary winning by a few points (probably within the margin of error for polling), and everything will still be up in the air come Tuesday. They're both heavily campaigning in the South right now, since the majority of Super Tuesday states are southern (including my home state).

Before anybody asks, I'm not voting in the primary. I realize they got rid of the Texas two-step that enabled Hillary to win the state in '08, but Obama to walk away with more delegates, but I'm still not voting this round. I might change my mind in 2020, though. In Texas, voting in the primary is how you declare party affiliation. I'm willing to stay independent one more cycle, but don't be surprised if I change my mind after this election.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by sinewav » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:53 am

Lucifer wrote:As for the Apple thing, I don't think that's going to affect the election.
I wish it were an election topic. It's serious business. Here is an interesting interview with John McAfee who happens to be running for president for the Libertarian party. (Gee, no news coverage?)
Lucifer wrote:Carson is beating Kasich.
What the crap? How am I continually amazed at the Republican thought process (or lack thereof)? Anyway, CNN is calling Trump the GOP nominee. I believe it is still too early to make that call. There is a good chance this will go to a brokered convention and that is bad news for Trump.
Lucifer wrote:Black Lives Matter people have started campaigning for Hillary, which I first assumed would hand her the black vote she was already expecting. But then Spike Jones came out with a bunch of his cronies in favor of Bernie. So, that's interesting.
Ah, the old idea of African-American homogeny. There seem to be a lot of black folks who can't stand BLM and them supporting Mr.s Clinton is probably a curse more than a blessing.

I wish I could vote in the primary, but it's too much hassle to keep switching parties. I've done it like four times already. I'll stay independent. Really, I prefer to vote in local elections and have sat out more than half the general elections, though I do miss voting in the primaries.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer » Wed Feb 24, 2016 8:09 am

sinewav wrote:
Lucifer wrote:Carson is beating Kasich.
What the crap? How am I continually amazed at the Republican thought process (or lack thereof)? Anyway, CNN is calling Trump the GOP nominee. I believe it is still too early to make that call. There is a good chance this will go to a brokered convention and that is bad news for Trump.
Trump loses in a brokered convention. However, I think Trump loses if he only has one competitor (Rubio) when the winner-takes-all primaries start up in mid-March. The best way for the GOP candidates to make sure Trump gets nominated is for them all to stay in the race at least into early April. They need to start thinking about quitting.
Lucifer wrote:Black Lives Matter people have started campaigning for Hillary, which I first assumed would hand her the black vote she was already expecting. But then Spike Jones came out with a bunch of his cronies in favor of Bernie. So, that's interesting.
Ah, the old idea of African-American homogeny. There seem to be a lot of black folks who can't stand BLM and them supporting Mr.s Clinton is probably a curse more than a blessing.
I wasn't really thinking homogeny there, just that Black Lives Matter activists would be more likely to get more voters to Hillary's banner than otherwise. Bernie has to energize the black vote, and he absolutely can't win without it. I think your average black person is more likely to be politically involved if they support BLM than if they don't. But Spike Jones has quite a voice, too. Is it enough to energize the parts of the black community that won't be swayed by BLM activists? I don't know. What I know from what I see in Austin (notably the liberal city in Texas) is that your average black person is quite likely to support BLM, but actual support is probably 2/3 or so.

Also, there are numerous black rights activists who oppose BLM due to BLM tactics. They're trying to paint BLM as the Black Panthers (which they're not). I'm still wondering how long it's going to be before the entire non-white population of the country decides MLK was wrong on the idea of peaceful protest. I'm not saying he was wrong, just that, well, peaceful protest seems to have stopped working.
I wish I could vote in the primary, but it's too much hassle to keep switching parties. I've done it like four times already. I'll stay independent. Really, I prefer to vote in local elections and have sat out more than half the general elections, though I do miss voting in the primaries.
Well, here's the thing. If the Dems put up Hillary, then I know they're not my political party. I'll still vote for her, because it's vital that we stop the GOP at this time. In my lifetime, particularly as an adult, the Dems have put up a grand total of 3 candidates I wanted to win. Two of them won, twice each. The third is still involved in the primaries. I didn't give a shit about Gore or Kerry, so I didn't even bother voting. When it was Bill Clinton, I missed election day in 1992 by a few weeks (I turned 18 late in November that year), but had I not missed it, I'd have voted for him. I figured Dole had no chance to win, so I didn't bother voting then, either, heh. When it was Gore v Bush, I knew I didn't want Tipper Gore in the white house doing anything, and I wasn't comfortable with Gore as veep, but I didn't think Bush would turn out to be so bad, so I stayed neutral and didn't vote. I didn't actually vote in a presidential election until '08, and I voted for Obama as many times as they let me (hint: it was only once).

You know, voting Democrat in Texas is one of the most futile things you can do. I really hope the Battleground Texas people have made a lot more progress since the 2014 mid-terms. I'd love to see Texas turn blue for an election.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer » Thu Feb 25, 2016 5:44 am

I just had an odd epiphany. It starts like this: Trump is the best thing to happen in this race.

See, let's look at what he's accomplished:

* He's broken the mold of how to talk like a president.
* He's running a campaign built on rhetoric, but otherwise full of air.
* He's driving record numbers of voters to primaries and caucuses

Sound familiar?

See, the problem with Bernie is that he's trying to be Obama II, but he's not. He's just not. We elected Obama on a lot of promises, and he worked his ass off to do what he thought was best, and we love him for it. But being honest about his campaign, he never really had a plan for anything, except winning the election. And, here's the important bit, by winning in '08, Obama reformed the Democratic party. Just by winning! Hell, arguably he managed it by winning the nomination. Bernie's a contender now only because of Obama's '08 win. Had Hillary won the nomination in '08, Bernie never would have had a chance.

What Trump's doing is pushing the GOP back to the center. Most of his positions on issues are centrist. Sure, he's a loudmouthed racist, misogynist, etc. On immigration and foreign policy, he's far to the right. But everywhere else? He's in the middle. He could run as a democrat and change his immigration and foreign policy stances to be a bit more blue. And race relations. Or whatever we're calling it these days. Seriously, go read his platform. We're judging him (correctly, mind you) based on the most extreme views he holds. But most of what he says in his platform? Bill Clinton could have run on it and won.

Trump's next two contenders both got ushered in with the Tea Bagger movement. They're both guilty of obstructing legitimate legislative business to cater to the right-wing Tea Baggers. Cruz personally engineered at least one government shutdown, and Rubio went along with it (iirc). They were part of a field that were supposed to start a revolution, curb Obama's so-called excesses, and so forth, and they ended up creating the most dysfunctional government in the world since the Roman Empire collapsed. Hell, Lenin and Mao were good governors by comparison to this crap we've got.

So there are a lot of people in the GOP world who are sick of it, and here comes a loudmouthed businessman that's spouting centrist views while playing to their innate fear of everything.

If he wins the nomination, but not the election, I don't think the GOP can go back to what they've been since Newt Gingrich ****** it all up. He'll push the GOP into the center, have a decent showing (better than Romney or McCain), and we can expect more reasonable candidates to start showing up on that side.

As long as he only wins the nomination. I'm predicting nuclear apocalypse if he wins the actual presidency.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer » Fri Feb 26, 2016 9:28 am

Anybody watch the debate tonight? If not, and you like to watch people fight, check it out on youtube (that's where I watched it). It's all Republicans, so don't go in expecting to make decisions about people you already don't like, but man, it was fun.

If I were a conservative, after shooting myself (which is my 2nd amendment right) (yes, that was a suicide joke), I'd vote for Rubio, after tonight's performance. I'd prefer Kasich, but Rubio was on FIRE, man, ON FIRE. His shit-eating grin wins the internets for the day.

Fo' shizzle.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by sinewav » Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:31 am

Lucifer wrote:...check it out on youtube (that's where I watched it).
You're lucky. I can't find it anywhere. We live in a country where businesses not only control the politicians, but their debates as well. Can't have an informed public, now can we?

EDIT-1: Holy crap, this took way too long to find. We live in such a shitty country.

EDIT-2: The mudslinging was a new low, but holy crap, Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich mopped the floor with Trump. The debate gave me second thoughts about Cruz, who I felt was very presidential. I still think he is, but Kasich and Rubio really shined. Rubio was outstanding, snarky remarks aside it was one of the best performances I've ever seen and something the Democratic party should be worried about.

If the goal is the eliminate Mrs. Clinton, then Rubio and Kasich are the guys to do it.

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Re: US Election 2016

Post by Lucifer » Sat Feb 27, 2016 10:32 pm

I'm definitely thinking Rubio is the guy to take Trump down. Also, a Rubio/Kasich ticket could take out Hillary, too.

But Trump played a trump card yesterday when he announced Chris Christie endorsed him. That was obviously timed to blunt any debate gains from Thursday, and Super Tuesday (next Tuesday) is the next round for the GOP.

Today, of course, the dems are voting in South Carolina. Entrance polls are favoring Hillary, but it'll be a few more hours before actual votes start getting counted.
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Re: US Election 2016

Post by sinewav » Sun Feb 28, 2016 2:37 am

Lucifer wrote:But Trump played a trump card yesterday when he announced Chris Christie endorsed him. That was obviously timed to blunt any debate gains from Thursday, and Super Tuesday (next Tuesday) is the next round for the GOP.
I don't know that this will have the intended effect. Christie was shunned by the GOP so it won't make a difference to the Party and it doesn't add to Trump's legitimacy. Christie is an opportunist, just like Trump.

The problem I see going into Super Tuesday is that Rubio, Kasich, and Cruz were all solid contenders in the debate. None of them are dropping out voluntarily. The next few primaries are going to be a trainwreck. All the "not-Trump" votes will get diluted and people will have the false impression that Trump is a winner and can beat Clinton or Sanders.

Gonna be a long spring.

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